ITA Revises 2008 Numbers
Industrial Truck Association adjusts 2008 forecast downward.
By Stan Simpson
The North American material handling industry is facing an uncertain time. It’s unusual in an election year to have an opaque economic climate. Usually, politicians are anxious to put out the most optimistic outlooks for the future, but that’s not happening this year.
The Industrial Truck Association surveys the Board of Directors quarterly to determine their thoughts about the industry and what the future has to bring. In the United States and Canada, Table 1 shows what the industry leaders think is going to happen.
| Table 1 |
| Truck Class |
Actual
All of 2007 |
Estimate for
All of 2008 in
August 2007 |
Estimate for
All of 2008 in
November 2007 |
Estimate for
All of 2008 in
January 2008 |
Estimate for
All of 2009 in
January 2008 |
| 1 |
31,587 |
31,126 |
30,261 |
29,925 |
31,212 |
| 2 |
22,454 |
23,808 |
21,942 |
21,541 |
22,629 |
| 3 |
53,044 |
54,265 |
51,704 |
50,692 |
52,755 |
| 4 |
36,427 |
37,443 |
35,944 |
34,788 |
36,354 |
| 5 |
42,214 |
43,848 |
41,517 |
40,208 |
42,106 |
| Totals |
185,726 |
190,490 |
181,368 |
177,154 |
185,056 |
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This is a marked difference from the ITA report published in The MHEDA Journal in January, when the estimate for 2008 was for 189,324 trucks to be sold. At that time, ITA expected Classes I and II to increase slightly while the remainder of classes remained steady. Now, ITA predicts decreases in all five lift truck classes.
In short, we have to be prepared for a downturn. There is reason for optimism, though, as the chart above indicates. We expect the industry to take a short-term hit in 2008 and rebound in 2009.
MHIA Adjusts Forecast |
In the January 2008 issue of The MHEDA Journal, Material Handling Industry of America CEO John Nofsinger authored an article, “Recovery Seen For Storage Equipment Sector,” which stated that economic recovery would begin in 2008. “The data now indicates that we are going to stay soft a little longer than the fourth quarter would have suggested,” Nofsinger says. He believes 2008 will be 5-7% off from 2007, and the industry will regain strength in 2009. “It still probably won’t get back to the 2007 level, but bookings will have picked up nicely. By 2010, I feel comfortable that we will be back into a growth phase of the cycle.”
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